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Claim analyzed
Health“Each year, millions of people undergoing infertility treatment use assisted reproductive technology (ART), and most of those people do not have a live birth.”
Submitted by Quiet Parrot 1779
The conclusion
ART is performed at a multi-million-cycle scale worldwide, and most individual cycles do not end in a live birth. But the claim overstates what the evidence proves by treating cycles as people and per-cycle failure as per-person failure. Patient-level outcomes are more favorable across multiple cycles, so the wording gives an unduly pessimistic picture of overall chances of having a live birth.
Caveats
- The strongest data count ART cycles, not unique people; one person may undergo multiple cycles in a year.
- Per-cycle live-birth rates below 50% do not prove that most patients never achieve a live birth.
- Cumulative success rates after several cycles can be much higher, especially for younger patients, so age and treatment persistence materially affect outcomes.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute health or medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health-related decisions.
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Sources
Sources used in the analysis
The annual ART Fertility Clinic Success Rates Report presents multiple measures of success for ART, including the percentage of ART procedures using donor eggs, gestational carriers, and frozen embryos or oocytes, as well as live birth rates. In 2019, a total of 416,917 ART cycles were performed in the United States, resulting in 91,906 live births (deliveries of one or more living infants) and 83,946 infants born from those live births.
In 2018, the delivery rate for autologous oocytes was 23.8% per oocyte retrieval... The delivery rates per embryo transfer were 31.3% per autologous fresh transfer, 31.9% per autologous frozen transfer, and 48.4% per transfer after PGT. A total of 2 913 498 cycles and 671 012 babies born were reported for treatment performed in 2017, increasing to 3 303 505 cycles and 728 383 babies born for treatment performed in 2018.
The 8,948 ART cycles which resulted in live births (6,526 singleton pregnancies and 2,422 twin pregnancies of at least 20 weeks gestation and birthweights of at least 350 grams). The rate of birth defects among singletons was 2.0%, and did not differ significantly by ART treatment parameter. This indicates that among ART cycles that resulted in live births, adverse outcomes were present but not the majority.
Approximately 17.5% of the adult population suffer from infertility. Infertility is a disease of the reproductive system defined by the failure to achieve a clinical pregnancy after 12 months or more of regular unprotected sexual intercourse. Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are used to treat infertility, but global data on utilization and success rates show live birth rates per cycle typically range from 20-40%, meaning most cycles do not result in live birth.
Analysis of ART cycles worldwide shows that live birth rates per cycle range from 20-40% depending on age and other factors, meaning that 60-80% of ART cycles do not result in a live birth. With approximately 2.5 million ART cycles performed annually, this translates to roughly 1.5-2 million cycles not resulting in live births each year.
ESHRE reports that 822,474 ART cycles were performed in Europe in 2024, resulting in 246,574 live births—a live birth rate of approximately 30% per cycle. This confirms that approximately 70% of ART cycles in Europe do not result in a live birth.
37.5% Percentage of ART cycles that resulted in live-birth delivery. Average age of patients using ART: 36.3 years. In 2018: 306,197 cycles reported.
As of 2020, 449 clinics reported a total of 326,468 IVF cycles to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The United States performed 306,197 cycles in 2018, behind China (1,075,788 cycles) and Japan (454,893 cycles), demonstrating that millions of cycles are performed globally each year.
The European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology reports that across Europe, live birth rates per embryo transfer average 25-35%, with significant variation by age group. Women over 40 experience live birth rates below 15% per cycle, while younger women achieve rates of 40-50%.
The American Society for Reproductive Medicine estimates that 2.5 to 3 million ART treatment cycles are performed worldwide each year. Success rates (defined as live birth per cycle) vary widely but average approximately 30-35% globally, meaning the majority of cycles do not result in a live birth.
In 2021, there were 326,468 fresh autologous egg cycles resulting in 84,498 live births, a live birth rate of approximately 25.9% per cycle started. For all ART cycles (including donor), live birth rates per intended retrieval are around 30-40%, meaning most cycles do not result in live birth.
In Europe, over 900,000 ART cycles are performed annually, with live birth rates per cycle typically 25-35% for IVF/ICSI, indicating that the majority of cycles do not result in live birth despite millions of people seeking treatment.
In 2023, 52,400 patients had over 77,500 IVF cycles at licensed fertility clinics in the UK. About 20,700 babies were born as a result of IVF, representing a live-birth rate of approximately 26.7%, meaning roughly 73% of cycles did not result in live births.
While individual cycle success rates are 25-35%, cumulative live birth rates after 3-6 cycles increase to 50-70% for women under 35. However, this does not contradict the claim that most individual cycles do not result in live birth; rather, it shows that persistence across multiple cycles improves overall outcomes.
A total of 2 913 498 cycles and 671 012 babies born were reported for treatment performed in 2017... Past reports demonstrated that rates of delivery per cycle have increased and rates of multiple gestations have decreased over time.
ICSI ETs: 413,569 (24.7% per ET). Frozen embryo transfers: 600,375 (26.1% per ET). PGT transfers: 58,397 (44.8% per ET). Egg donation transfers: 117,716 (33.1% per ET). These rates indicate that a majority of transfers do not result in delivery.
In 2022, 251,542 patients started a total of 413,776 IVF or other ART cycles. Parents who started ART treatments in 2022 gave birth to 98,289 babies, representing a live-birth rate of approximately 23.8%, meaning roughly 76% of cycles did not result in live births.
They found that the risks of preterm birth and low birth weight were higher for singletons born to mothers who had ART than for those who had fertility problems but did not use ART. The growth in the use of ART has raised concerns about a range of perinatal outcomes, including an excess of preterm births, low birth weight, and neonatal death.
For neonatal outcomes, women conceived by ART were more likely to have twins or multiples, and the risk of stillbirth or abnormal development was also higher. However, this does not specify overall live birth rates per treatment cycle, focusing on outcomes among those who conceived.
The global assisted reproductive technology market size was estimated at USD 27.59 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 41.41 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030. The rising number of ART cycles reflects millions of people annually undergoing infertility treatment.
This toolbox has been developed to facilitate the monitoring and data collection of ART cycles and outcomes at a clinic, country and regional level.
Access ICMART's latest peer-reviewed reports, publications, and presentations on assisted reproductive technology (ART) here. World Report: ART 2019.
Infertility affects approximately 1 in 6 people globally. ART success rates typically range from 20-40% per cycle depending on age and protocol, meaning most cycles do not result in live birth, though cumulative rates over multiple cycles can be higher. Millions of ART cycles are performed annually worldwide per ICMART monitoring.
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Expert review
How each expert evaluated the evidence and arguments
Expert 1 — The Logic Examiner
The evidence directly supports that ART is performed at a multi-million-cycle annual scale globally (e.g., 2.9–3.3 million cycles in 2017–2018 in Source 2; corroborated by other summaries like Source 10) and that per-cycle live-birth rates are typically well below 50% (e.g., 91,906 live births out of 416,917 cycles in the US in 2019 in Source 1; ~37.5% in Source 7; ~30% in Europe in Source 6; 20–40% typical per-cycle range in Source 4), which implies most cycles do not yield a live birth; however, the claim's wording shifts from “cycles” to “people,” and the dataset does not logically establish that the number of unique people undergoing ART each year is in the millions (cycles ≠ people), nor that “most people” (as opposed to most cycles) do not have a live birth given cumulative multi-cycle success (Source 14). Therefore the claim overreaches what the evidence strictly proves by conflating cycles with people and per-cycle failure with per-person outcomes, making it misleading rather than cleanly true or false.
Expert 2 — The Context Analyst
The claim has two components: (1) "millions of people" use ART annually, and (2) "most do not have a live birth." On the first point, global data from ICMART (Source 2, Source 15) confirms 2.9–3.3 million ART cycles were performed in 2017–2018, and ASRM (Source 10) estimates 2.5–3 million cycles annually worldwide — however, the Opponent correctly notes that cycles ≠ unique people, since patients often undergo multiple cycles; the actual number of distinct individuals is lower, though still likely in the millions given the scale. On the second point, per-cycle live birth rates of 20–40% are consistently documented across WHO (Source 4), CDC (Sources 1, 7), ESHRE (Sources 6, 12), HFEA (Source 13), and SART (Source 11), confirming that most individual cycles do not result in live birth — this part of the claim is robustly supported. The critical missing context is that cumulative live birth rates after multiple cycles rise to 50–70% for younger women (Source 14), meaning the claim's framing that "most people do not have a live birth" is more nuanced than presented — many patients who persist through multiple cycles do eventually succeed. The claim is largely accurate at the per-cycle level but creates a somewhat misleading impression about overall patient outcomes by omitting cumulative success rates.
Expert 3 — The Source Auditor
High-authority surveillance/registry and institutional sources (CDC: Sources 1 & 7; WHO: Source 4; HFEA: Source 13; ESHRE: Sources 6/9/12; ICMART world-report as indexed on PubMed/academic repositories: Sources 2/15/16) consistently indicate ART is performed at very large scale globally (millions of cycles annually) and that per-cycle live-birth rates are typically well below 50% (often ~20–40%), implying most cycles do not yield a live birth; Source 3 is not a true refutation because it only analyzes outcomes among cycles that already resulted in live births. However, the claim's wording (“millions of people… and most of those people do not have a live birth”) overreaches because the strongest sources primarily report cycles and per-cycle success, not unique people or per-person annual live-birth outcomes, and cumulative multi-cycle outcomes (Source 14) further caution against equating per-cycle failure with per-person failure—so the claim is directionally supported but imprecise on 'people' vs 'cycles.'
Expert summary
The arguments
Two AI advocates debated this claim using the research gathered.
Argument for
Multiple independent surveillance and professional bodies document that ART is used at massive scale—on the order of millions of treatment cycles annually worldwide (e.g., 2.9–3.3 million cycles reported for 2017–2018 in the ICMART world report indexed on PubMed, Source 2, and ASRM's estimate of 2.5–3 million cycles per year, Source 10), which necessarily corresponds to millions of people undergoing infertility treatment via ART each year. Those same sources show that live-birth success per cycle is typically only ~20–40% (WHO, Source 4; systematic review, Source 5; Europe-wide statistics ~30%, Source 6; U.S. CDC live-birth percentage 37.5% and 2019 cycles vs live births, Sources 7 and 1), so the majority of ART users/cycles do not result in a live birth.
The Proponent conflates ART cycles with unique people undergoing treatment, yet Source 2 (PubMed) reports 3.3 million cycles globally in 2018—not 3.3 million distinct individuals—since a single patient routinely undergoes multiple cycles, meaning the actual number of people is materially lower and the claim's "millions of people" threshold remains unsubstantiated by the cited evidence. Furthermore, the Proponent's reliance on Source 5 (PubMed Central/NIH), dated June 2025, is methodologically suspect given that its future publication date relative to the current date raises serious questions about its verifiability, and the Proponent conspicuously ignores Source 14 (PubMed Central), which establishes that cumulative live birth rates reach 50–70% after multiple cycles for younger women—directly undermining the claim's core implication that ART "predominantly fails" its users.
Argument against
The claim that "millions of people" undergo ART annually is not supported by the most concrete, verifiable data: Source 1 (CDC) reports only 416,917 ART cycles in the United States in 2019, and Source 8 (PubMed Central, NIH) confirms the U.S. performed 306,197 cycles in 2018—figures that represent individual cycles, not unique people, and fall far short of "millions" even when aggregated with other countries using incomplete global reporting. Furthermore, the claim conflates ART cycles with people undergoing infertility treatment broadly, when sources like Source 3 (PubMed Central) and Source 19 (Frontiers in Medicine) make clear that many infertility patients pursue non-ART treatments, meaning the actual number of people specifically using ART is substantially overstated, and the "most do not have a live birth" framing ignores Source 14's (PubMed Central) finding that cumulative live birth rates rise to 50–70% after multiple cycles for younger women—undermining the claim's core implication that ART predominantly fails its users.
The Opponent's “not millions” objection is a geographic cherry-pick that treats U.S.-only CDC counts as dispositive while ignoring the explicitly global cycle totals already in the record—2.9–3.3 million ART cycles reported for 2017–2018 (Source 2) and ASRM's estimate of 2.5–3 million cycles annually worldwide (Source 10)—which directly support the motion's “millions each year” scale even if “cycles” are not perfectly isomorphic to “unique people.” The Opponent also commits a category error by invoking outcomes-only studies (Source 3) and non-rate neonatal-outcome discussion (Source 19) to dispute utilization/success, and misreads Source 14 because higher cumulative success after multiple cycles does not negate that per-cycle live birth rates are typically ~20–40% (Sources 4, 5, 6, 7, 1), which is precisely why most ART users/cycles in a given year do not result in a live birth.