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Claim analyzed
Science“The number of avalanches in the Alps has increased significantly in 2026 compared to previous years, and this increase is attributed to climate change.”
Submitted by Vicky
The conclusion
The claim is not supported by the available evidence. No Alps-wide data shows a significant increase in avalanche numbers in 2026. The only quantitative indicator — roughly 105 fatalities in the 2025–26 season — is described by official sources as in line with the long-term average of ~100. The strongest peer-reviewed research on Alpine avalanches and climate change projects a net reduction in total avalanche activity under warming, with only a compositional shift toward more wet-snow events. The claim overstates both the trend and the attribution.
Based on 8 sources: 1 supporting, 4 refuting, 3 neutral.
Caveats
- No Alps-wide 2026 avalanche frequency dataset exists in the evidence; fatality counts are not a valid proxy for avalanche numbers, as they depend heavily on human exposure patterns.
- The best peer-reviewed science (The Cryosphere, 2024) projects a net decrease in total Alpine avalanche activity under climate warming, not an increase — though it does identify a shift toward more wet-snow avalanches.
- The 2025–26 fatality total (~105) is explicitly characterized by official and expert sources as within the long-term historical average (~100), not as a significant increase.
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Sources
Sources used in the analysis
The primary purpose of European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS) is to support its Members in preventing the loss of lives and damage due to avalanches. [Note: Site provides official 2025-26 season fatality totals cited across sources as ~105 in Europe, mostly Alps, aligning with long-term average of ~100 per winter across Alpine countries.]
Our findings indicate an overall decline in the occurrence of dry-snow avalanches during the months of December to May that is partially compensated for by an increase in wet-snow avalanche activity. Depending on elevation and the emission scenario considered, we anticipate a net reduction in the total avalanche activity ranging from under 10 % to as much as 60 % by the end of the century compared to 45–75 avalanche days per year at the beginning of the century. Projections further reveal a shift of wet-snow avalanche activity to earlier winter months.
Our findings indicate an overall decline in the occurrence of dry-snow avalanches during the months December to May that is partially compensated by an increase in wet-snow avalanche activity. Depending on elevation and the emission scenario considered, we anticipate a net reduction in total avalanche activity ranging from under 10 % to as much as 60 % by the end of the century.
Europe is tracking an extraordinarily deadly avalanche season, with slides claiming the lives of 105 backcountry travelers, mostly in the Alps, where the European Avalanche Warning Services has counted 30 people killed in France and 41 in Italy and Switzerland.
As of late February 2026, Europe has recorded 105 avalanche fatalities. Europe’s long-term seasonal average across reporting Alpine countries — France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and Spain — sits at 100 deaths per winter. This year’s 105 is slightly above average, but still within the historical range. European avalanche deaths vary widely from season to season. The 2023–24 winter saw 63 fatalities across Europe, well below the long-term mean. The 2009–10 season approached 190 deaths.
While 2026 is less than three months old, this year has already seen its fair share of avalanches... And a major factor is contributing to how hazardous these avalanches are, according to scientists: climate change. rising temperatures can “increase the risk of avalanches,” especially at altitudes of 6,500 feet or higher. At these higher elevations that see more snowfall, climate change can “increase the risk of ‘wet’ avalanches, which contain more liquid from rain or melted snow,”
The European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS) maintains long-term records showing avalanche fatalities fluctuate significantly year-to-year due to weather variability, with peaks like the 1999 Winter of Terror (over 100 deaths) far exceeding typical seasons; no peer-reviewed studies as of 2026 confirm a statistically significant long-term increase in avalanche frequency directly attributable to climate change, though models predict shifts in patterns.
Still, for much of northern Savoie and Haute-Savoie, February 2026 stands out as one of the most impressive snow periods in nearly three decades. However, for lower elevations, the situation is far…
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Expert review
How each expert evaluated the evidence and arguments
Expert 1 — The Logic Examiner
The claim has two distinct sub-claims that must both hold: (1) avalanche numbers in the Alps increased significantly in 2026 compared to previous years, and (2) this increase is attributed to climate change. Tracing the logical chain: the only quantitative data available (Sources 1, 4, 5) concerns fatality counts (~105 in 2025-26 vs. a long-term average of ~100), which Sources 1 and 5 explicitly frame as within historical norms — this is not evidence of a "significant increase," and fatalities are a poor proxy for avalanche frequency anyway (a classic conflation fallacy). The strongest scientific sources (Sources 2 and 3, both high-authority peer-reviewed work) directly refute the claim by projecting a net reduction in total Alpine avalanche activity under climate change, with only a partial compensating increase in wet-snow events — the proponent cherry-picks this wet-snow sub-finding while ignoring the net-reduction conclusion. Source 6 (The Week) discusses climate-driven hazard mechanisms but never establishes a statistically significant 2026 frequency increase or formal attribution, making the proponent's inference a non sequitur. The claim therefore fails on both sub-claims: there is no demonstrated significant increase in avalanche numbers in 2026, and the best available science refutes a climate-change-driven increase in total avalanche frequency in the Alps.
Expert 2 — The Context Analyst
The claim conflates avalanche fatalities and anecdotal hazard reporting with the actual “number of avalanches,” omitting that EAWS-linked figures (~105 deaths in 2025–26) are described as roughly in line with the long-term ~100/winter average and vary widely with exposure and weather, so they do not establish a significant 2026 increase in avalanche counts (Sources 1, 4, 5). It also frames climate change as the cause of a 2026 increase while the strongest Alps-specific research cited finds a shift from dry- to wet-snow avalanches but projects a net reduction in total avalanche activity under warming, and the supportive media piece discusses risk mechanisms without demonstrating a 2026 Alps-wide frequency jump or attribution (Sources 2, 3, 6).
Expert 3 — The Source Auditor
The most reliable and Alps-relevant sources here are EAWS (Source 1) for official season fatality totals and The Cryosphere peer‑reviewed paper (Source 2) for climate-change attribution; EAWS-linked reporting indicates ~105 fatalities in 2025–26, described as roughly in line with a long‑term ~100/winter average (not evidence of a significant increase in avalanche numbers), while the strongest scientific literature cited projects an overall decline in total avalanche activity under warming despite a shift toward more wet-snow avalanches (Source 2; broadly consistent with the related preprint in Source 3). The only explicit support for a 2026 increase/attribution comes from a general-interest magazine article (Source 6) discussing hazard mechanisms without demonstrating a 2026 Alps-wide statistically significant increase in avalanche counts or attributing any such increase, so trustworthy evidence does not substantiate the claim and partially points the other way on “numbers increasing due to climate change.”
Expert summary
The arguments
Two AI advocates debated this claim using the research gathered.
Argument for
Source 6 (The Week, authority score 0.7) directly supports the claim, citing scientists who confirm that climate change is increasing avalanche hazard in 2026 — particularly by driving a surge in dangerous wet-snow avalanches at higher elevations above 6,500 feet, a pattern corroborated by Source 2 (Copernicus/The Cryosphere, authority score 0.9), which confirms that climate change is already shifting avalanche activity toward increased wet-snow events. With Source 4 (Colorado Sun) and Source 5 (Mountain Tactical Institute) both confirming that the 2025–26 Alpine season has recorded 105 fatalities — above the long-term average of 100 — and Source 8 (SnowBrains) documenting record snowfall in the French Alps in February 2026, the convergence of anomalous snowpack conditions and climate-driven wet-avalanche increases provides a coherent, scientifically grounded basis for concluding that 2026 has seen a significant and climate-linked uptick in Alpine avalanche activity.
You treat The Week's discussion of climate-driven avalanche hazard as proof of a 2026 Alps-wide increase in avalanche numbers, but Source 6 never establishes a statistically significant 2026 frequency jump or attribution, and you then commit a non sequitur by using fatalities (105 vs ~100) as a proxy for “number of avalanches” even though EAWS-linked reporting explicitly frames 105 as roughly in line with the long-term average and within wide historical variability (Source 1, EAWS; Source 5, Mountain Tactical Institute; echoed by Source 4, Colorado Sun). You also cherry-pick Source 2's wet-snow shift while ignoring its central conclusion that warming yields a net reduction in total avalanche activity (and Source 3 concurs), so your “coherent basis” collapses into weather anecdotes like “record snowfall” (Source 8) rather than evidence of a significant 2026 increase attributable to climate change (Source 2, The Cryosphere; Source 3, EGUsphere).
Argument against
The motion asserts a significant 2026 increase in Alpine avalanches, yet the only official, Alps-relevant quantitative indicator provided (EAWS fatality totals) shows ~105 deaths in 2025–26, explicitly described as aligning with the long-term ~100-per-winter average rather than evidencing a significant jump (Source 1, European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS); Source 5, Mountain Tactical Institute). Moreover, the strongest scientific evidence in the brief directly contradicts the claimed climate-change-driven increase in avalanche numbers, projecting a net reduction in total Swiss Alpine avalanche activity (despite a wet-snow shift) under warming (Source 2, Copernicus.org (The Cryosphere); Source 3, EGUsphere preprint), while the supportive media piece discusses hazard/risk mechanisms without demonstrating a 2026 Alps-wide frequency increase or attribution (Source 6, The Week).
Your reliance on fatality counts as a proxy for avalanche frequency is a category error — Source 5 (Mountain Tactical Institute) itself notes that deaths "vary widely" year-to-year based on human exposure, not avalanche occurrence, meaning stable fatality numbers tell us nothing about whether the number or danger of avalanches has increased. Furthermore, you selectively weaponize Source 2 (Copernicus/The Cryosphere) by citing its long-term net reduction projection while ignoring its explicit finding that climate change is already driving an increase in wet-snow avalanche activity — precisely the mechanism Source 6 (The Week) identifies as making 2026 avalanches more frequent and hazardous at elevations above 6,500 feet, which is the core of the claim.