“Standardized testing predicts future academic success more accurately than other assessment methods.”

TMS and HAM-Nat as well as high-school GPA predicted academic performance separately. However, while both admission tests demonstrate substantial incremental validity over high-school GPA, the reverse is true to a far lesser extent. High-school GPA exhibits only small predictive power whilst controlling for admission test scores.

Scores on the ACT college entrance exam predict college grades to a statistically and practically significant degree, but what explains this predictive ...

SAT scores remain consistently predictive of cumulative GPA throughout each year of college—from first-year GPA through fourth-year GPA. The information added by SAT scores above HSGPA to predict college GPA remains consistent through the first four years of college, and this was true for all subgroups examined.

High-school grades are often viewed as an unreliable criterion for college admissions... The present study challenges that conventional view. The study finds that high-school grade point average (HSGPA) is consistently the best predictor not only of freshman grades in college... but of four-year college outcomes as well.

Our study separately calculates outcomes for every student subgroup, and we find that in every subgroup and on every test, students in higher-score categories have far better long-term education outcomes than students in lower-score categories. Across the board, strong standardized test scores in 8th grade are associated with much higher rates of postsecondary success.

In a meta-analysis from 50 institutions, Westrick et al. (2015) found that while both ACT scores and HSGPA were significant predictors of college performance and retention, HSGPA was more predictive than ACT scores. Collectively, these studies suggest that a more comprehensive approach that includes both standardized test scores and HSGPA provides the most accurate prediction of college success.

The present analysis reveals that the failure to find a negative correlation indicates that the standardized test is in fact a valid predictor of success. This is due to compensation between predictors during selection: Some students are admitted despite a low test score because their application is exceptional in other respects, while other students are admitted primarily based on a high test score despite weakness in the rest of their application.

The use of holistic approaches to undergraduate admissions has emerged as a strategy for expanding the predictive potential of traditional admissions criteria while addressing the disparities these criteria present (Bastedo et al., 2018; Hossler et al., 2019). Personal essays are a common component of holistic admissions reviews, offering insight into applicants' experiences, challenges, goals, and interests.

A new study from the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research found that students' high-school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation. The predictive power of GPAs was consistent across high schools, unlike test scores, and at many high schools, no connection was found between students' ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

Many previous studies have shown that SAT scores are a consistently strong predictor of first-year GPA and add predictive value beyond high school GPA (HSGPA).

The evidence in the three studies points to the conclusion that ACT and SAT scores typically yield similar results at selective colleges, and where they do not the ACT is usually favored with higher correlation coefficients.

The latest research shows that not only are test scores as predictive or even more predictive than high school grades of college performance, they are also strong predictors of post-college outcomes.

Students' high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

While recent studies by Friedman et al. (2025) and Chetty et al (2024) suggest standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than high school GPA at elite universities, this article also notes that for most college students attending non-selective institutions, high school GPA provides better information about the likelihood to succeed in college-level courses and accumulate credits.

In the other (College G), the academic rating was stronger than standardized testing in predicting first-year college academic performance, and got stronger with each additional year of college grades, while the value of standardized testing decreased each year.

Overall, for both cohorts, these results suggest that high school grades may be a better predictor of undergraduate success as measured by grades compared to both the new and old SAT ability and achievement tests. For the 2006 cohort, accounting for 21% of the variability, results show that, again, high school grade point average was the best overall predictor of undergraduate success compared to all SAT I and SAT Achievement tests.

Conventional exam-focused evaluation systems are becoming less effective in assessing diverse skills, with OECD's 2023 findings indicating that 72% of teachers believe standardized tests fall short in evaluating critical thinking, creativity, and teamwork. This research found that alternative methods improved skill retention by 35% and project-based assessments were closely linked to real-world competence.

Mathematica’s study revealed that both exams predict college readiness and, ultimately, helped inform the state's decision on which test to use in the future.

Alternative assessment methods, such as portfolios, project-based tasks, and peer assessments, promote deeper learning by encouraging critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills, and align with student-centered learning. These methods offer several advantages over traditional testing by providing opportunities for formative feedback and preparing students for professional environments.

The National Education Association (NEA) argues that standardized tests have never been accurate and reliable measures of student learning, and that decades of research demonstrate they are instruments of racism and a biased system, particularly affecting Black, Latin(o/a/x), and Native students, as well as students from some Asian groups.

A criticism of standardized tests is that their scores are not predictors of future success, as they can only evaluate rote knowledge of math, science, and English, failing to assess creativity, problem-solving, critical thinking, or artistic ability.

Meta-analyses, such as those by Sackett et al. (2009) and others, show standardized tests like SAT/ACT have predictive validities around r=0.3-0.5 for college GPA, often adding incremental validity over HSGPA but HSGPA alone frequently showing comparable or higher raw correlations in large samples.