“Companies will retain tariff refunds instead of passing the savings to consumers through lower prices.”

We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs' economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers.

Our analysis suggests that tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices. The rise in prices beginning in early 2025 coincides closely with tariff developments, and our model-based regressions confirm that these effects are statistically and economically significant.

For the 2018-19 tariffs, our local-projections approach reveals that tariff changes were passed through fully and quickly—within two months of tariff implementation—to consumer goods prices. For the February and March 2025 tariffs implemented on imports from China, we find that tariffs have already passed through partially to the consumer goods prices that we can observe through March.

Firms that receive refunds could choose to pass along those savings to consumers by lowering prices, or they could instead either re-invest those funds or transfer them to owners via dividends or stock buybacks. Net economic and distributional consequences of refunds depend in large part on these responses. Consider the case where firms passed 75 percent of the new tariffs along to consumers, but firms do not adjust prices in response to refunds. This would represent a transfer from consumers to firm owners.

Implied passthrough of tariffs to imported consumer goods prices ranges from roughly 31–63% for core goods and 42–96% for durables, depending on ... Overall, there is evidence, consistent with economic theory, that tariffs have raised both additional revenue ($194.8 Billion above the 2022–2024 average) and led to higher prices (Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) core goods up 1.5% during 2025 through November).

If refunds are issued after the Supreme Court struck down a large portion of President Donald Trump's tariffs, they'd go to the importer of record—the company that completed Customs paperwork and paid the initial tariff costs when a good was brought into the country. It's less common to see the allocation of refund benefits detailed in those contracts, and it's not certain that benefits would be allocated in the same way as costs.

But consumers hoping for a refund are unlikely to be compensated for the higher prices they paid when companies passed along the cost of the tariffs; that’s more likely to go to the companies themselves.

Companies have already passed the majority of the tariff impacts on to consumers, according to analysts, meaning prices are unlikely to drastically increase anytime soon. However, the cost of goods are also unlikely to be reduced substantially or quickly as companies continue to navigate trade uncertainty and maintain margins. “Tariff rebates will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit, and act as a fiscal stimulus,” Donovan said in a note published on Monday. “Any rebates will be paid to U.S. importers (as they are the ones who made payments to the U.S. Treasury). With new tariffs coming in, it seems unlikely anyone will rush to lower prices to their customers."

Earlier in the tariff cycle, U.S. businesses absorbed most of the costs. More recent estimates indicate that the balance is shifting, with consumers now expected to bear around 55% of total tariff costs as the effects of recent trade measures continue to filter through. Meanwhile the share absorbed by businesses has declined to roughly 22% as firms pass on higher input costs.

Consumer Passthrough: In June alone, TBL estimates 61-80% of the new 2025 tariffs were passed through to consumer core goods prices, roughly in the middle of prior studies around consumer price passthrough.

FedEx announced Thursday it will return any tariff refunds it may receive to its customers who paid them as it seeks compensation from the federal government for tariffs paid that were subsequently ruled illegal. The shipping giant said in a statement that it intends to return any tariff refunds to shippers and customers who bore the cost of the tariffs.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve found that companies passed 35% of tariff costs onto shoppers early this summer.

Prices have only edged up after each tariff announcement this year, suggesting that retailers are proactively managing their inventories. Are retailers passing on tariff-related price increases to consumers? So far, only a little. ... Cavallo’s analysis found that retailers have largely avoided raising prices—so far.

Customs laws and regulations dictate who receives repayment from the government. However, contract law, shaped by pricing structure, risk allocation, and commercial performance, will determine who ultimately retains it. For many companies, the next phase of the IEEPA unwind will resemble a contract dispute far more than a trade compliance exercise.

Any refunds would be paid out to companies who paid the tariffs directly, rather than consumers who may have paid higher costs that stemmed from the tariffs. Shapiro told Forbes businesses who work with other companies, rather than individuals, may return money their customers had paid to cover the tariffs, but “individual consumers don't have much power to demand that.”

In a Feb. 5 research note, economists from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that businesses had passed only about half of the cost of tariffs to consumers by the end of 2025. But the investment advisory firm expects retailers to further hike prices early in 2026.

“Whether any companies will be pressured into lowering their prices, or providing something like a 'tariff rebate day' where everybody that comes into Walmart gets 10% off … it's in the realm of the possible. There could be a big growing movement to say: 'You should give some of this back to your customers'.”

Just days ago, the New York Federal Reserve found nearly 90% of tariffs' economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers. And now with the president announcing a new 10% global tariff in response to the Supreme Court decision, that means some prices could go down, but much less than originally anticipated. ... And as for potential tariff refunds, we don't expect individual shoppers to get refunds on tariff purchases.

If businesses pass tariffs on to consumers, prices are at risk.

Historical examples, however, suggest that tariff reductions could help consumers in at least some areas. In 2018, the first Trump administration imposed tariffs ranging from 16 percent to 50 percent on finished washing machines. During the tariff period, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the cost of laundry equipment rose by 34 percent ... After the tariffs expired in 2023, the cost of laundry equipment fell by 11 percent.

Abercrombie & Fitch, Walmart, Nike, and other major brands that say Trump's tariffs are pushing them to raise prices. Even before his so-called "Liberation Day," companies warned they would pass costs on to shoppers.

Major corporations like Costco, FedEx, and Goodyear are attempting to recover money paid on duties ruled illegal by the high court. ... Now more than 1,800 companies have filed lawsuits asking for refunds.

This report finds that midsize businesses are disproportionately exposed to tariff hikes because they rely more heavily on imports from ...

In that scenario, tariff refunds could be counted twice between customers and companies, drastically increasing the cost to the federal ...

In trade economics, importers who paid tariffs often pass costs to consumers via higher prices, but refunds typically return to importers as the legal payers, with pass-through to consumers varying by market competition and company policy; historical cases like 1990s harbor maintenance fee refunds went to exporters without automatic consumer rebates.