Verify any claim · lenz.io
Claim analyzed
Health“Each year, millions of people undergoing infertility treatment use assisted reproductive technology (ART), and most of those people do not have a live birth.”
Submitted by Quiet Parrot 1779
The conclusion
Open in workbench →The claim is broadly supported when read as an annual statement. International and national ART registries show millions of treatment cycles each year worldwide, making millions of patients plausible, and annual live-birth success rates are generally well under 50%. The main caveat is that global data usually count cycles rather than unique people, and cumulative success after multiple cycles can be higher than annual results.
Caveats
- Global ART totals usually measure treatment cycles, not unique patients, so the "millions of people" figure is an informed estimate rather than a directly reported worldwide count.
- "Most do not have a live birth" is strongest when interpreted per year or per cycle; it is not the same as lifetime success after multiple cycles.
- Older linked-cycle studies in some populations show that more than half of patients may eventually achieve a live birth after several cycles, so the claim should not be read as a statement about ultimate outcomes.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute health or medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional before making health-related decisions.
Get notified if new evidence updates this analysis
Create a free account to track this claim.
Sources
Sources used in the analysis
For 2018, the estimated number of cycles was 3,568,635 resulting in an estimated 870,814 babies. The delivery rates per embryo transfer were 31.3% per autologous fresh transfer, 31.9% per autologous frozen transfer, and 48.4% per transfer after PGT. The report states that it is the most comprehensive summary of global ART utilization, effectiveness and safety currently available.
The ART Success Rates application provides clinic-specific and national success rates for all reporting fertility clinics in the United States for the most recent reporting year data are available. Using a drop-down box, you can access different factors, such as what percentage of intended egg retrievals or transfers resulted in a live-birth delivery.
More than 3 million ART cycles are now reported each year worldwide (ICMART 2022) with a reported 769,977 babies born. Registry figures are thought to represent around 75% of all ART treatments. Thus, around 4 million ART cycles are estimated each year, with about 1,000,000 babies born. An analysis of world data for 2020 puts the average delivery rate from ART treatment at 15.4% per aspiration and a 32.3% cumulative delivery rate from a single started aspiration.
In 2022, there were 435,426 ART cycles performed on 251,542 unique patients at 457 reporting U.S. clinics. Their cycles resulted in 94,039 live-birth deliveries and 98,289 live-born infants. These infants represented about 2.6% of all infants born in the U.S.
Cycle success is measured by the live birth rate with a singleton delivery occurring after 37 weeks of gestation being the optimal outcome of IVF cycle. The national report shows age-stratified live birth rates per cycle: for women <35 years the live birth rate per cycle is 53.2%, age 35–37 years 39.9%, age 38–40 years 26.2%, age 41–42 years 13.2%, and age >42 years 4.1%.
Despite over 3 million ART cycles performed annually globally, the estimated demand for ART is well over 10 million cycles per year and the need over 20 million cycles per year. Globally, an estimated 300,000–500,000 infants are born annually following ART.
In 2019, 1,077,813 treatment cycles were reported to EIM. Since 1997, the increasing numbers of clinics reporting to EIM resulted in a total of 12,804,411 treatment cycles and the birth of more than 2,479,254 infants. For the second time, the number of reported treatment cycles per year exceeded 1 million. In contrast, the number of infants born from ART per year declined (−5.4% compared to 2018), as did the percentage of ART infants per national births (3.0%; 3.5% in 2018).
This 20th sequential annual ICMART World Report on global ART treatment utilization, effectiveness, and safety during 2015 and 2016 presents worldwide data on ART cycles, deliveries, and outcomes. The report is part of ICMART’s long-running global registry effort to monitor assisted reproductive technologies.
From cycle 1 to cycle 4, the cumulative live-birth rate for all patients increased from 30.4% to 43.3%, 49.1%, and 51.9%, respectively, and plateaued thereafter. Thus, when multiple IVF cycles are considered together, more than half of patients ultimately have a live birth.
The cumulative live-birth rate in our population of more than 6000 patients undergoing up to six cycles of IVF was between 51% and 72%. After six cycles, 65% of women had at least one live birth when donor eggs were not used, and up to 86% when donor oocytes were used.
Parents who started assisted reproductive technologies (ART) treatments in 2022 gave birth to 98,289 babies, the vast majority of whom were conceived via in vitro fertilization. In 2022, 251,542 patients started a total of 413,776 IVF or other ART cycles. Across all ages of patients, 37.5% of ART cycles result in live births, though success rates vary depending on a host of factors, including age and the reason for pursuing IVF.
Since the first birth from IVF in 1978, at least **8 million children have been born from IVF-assisted pregnancies** worldwide. The European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) estimated the population-based demand for IVF to be approximately **3,000 cycles per million people**, highlighting that utilization in many countries is below potential demand. Given millions of cycles performed globally and only several million cumulative births, the data imply that a substantial proportion of IVF cycles do not result in a live birth.
A world-first estimate shows assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now part of everyday life for millions of families across the globe, with one ART-conceived baby born every 35 seconds. A recent study published in Fertility and Sterility estimates between 10 and 13 million babies were born via in vitro fertilisation (IVF) in the 40 years since the world’s first IVF infant was born in 1978. Preliminary global data suggests an additional 3–4 million infants were born past the study’s cutoff in 2018, bringing the total in 2024 to 13–17 million infants. For each fresh or frozen IVF cycle started in 35-year-old women, the live birth rate is around 30%. This drops to 15% for a 40-year-old and 10% for a 42-year-old.
The preliminary average IVF birth rate using fresh embryo transfers was 25% nationally, with 35% for patients aged 18–34 and 5% for patients aged 43–44 when using their own eggs in 2023. In 2023, the average pregnancy rate using frozen embryo transfers was 39% per embryo transferred and the average preliminary birth rate was 33% per embryo transferred. Babies born from IVF increased from about 8,700 in 2000 to 20,700 in 2023, and IVF births are now over 3% of all UK births.
More than **10 million babies have been born through assisted reproductive technology (ART) from 1978 through 2018**. A landmark global study led by David Adamson, MD, estimated the number of ART-conceived infants to be between **9.8 and 13 million by the end of 2018**, with projections reaching **15 million by 2024**. The report also emphasizes that infertility affects one in six people globally, and that ART is often the only viable treatment, meaning that the number of people undergoing treatment is much larger than the number of resulting live births.
Data collection and analysis are ongoing, so the presented results are preliminary. Globally, ART utilization and data collection continue to increase but with wide variations in utilization, effectiveness and safety. The number of ART cycles continues to increase, but utilization remains highly variable among countries and regions.
The outcome of an IVF cycle is based on multiple factors, with the major predictor being age at the time of the egg retrieval. SART provides an online calculator to predict success. This is an excellent tool to estimate the cumulative live birth rate up to three cycles. A “cycle” involves egg retrieval and the transfer of all the embryos from that cycle.
On a global scale, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that approximately 2.5 million IVF cycles are conducted annually. According to the CDC, nearly 390,000 IVF cycles were performed in the United States in 2023. According to recent IVF birth statistics, approximately 2 percent of all births in the United States are a result of assisted reproductive technologies, including IVF. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) reports that patients under the age of 35 experience the highest success rates, with live birth rates reaching up to 50%, while patients over the age of 44 have success rates below 5% per treatment cycle.
In 2016, the most recent year for which national totals are available, **more than 75,000 babies in the United States were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)**. Since 1996, more than **1 million U.S. babies** have been born as a result of ART techniques. These numbers are based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data on fertility clinics and illustrate that, although many couples use ART, the share of births resulting from ART is only about **2% of all U.S. births**.
In 2019, **2.1% of all infants born in the United States** (including the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico) **were conceived with the use of assisted reproductive technology (ART)**. This surveillance summary shows that, while ART is increasingly used, the proportion of births resulting from ART is still small relative to total births, indicating that most people undergoing ART do not achieve a live birth in a given year. CDC’s ART reports also document cycle-level outcomes, with many cycles ending in no pregnancy or pregnancy loss.
During the three years, more than 4,461,300 ART cycles were carried out, resulting in an estimated 1,144,858 babies born around the world. The authors wrote that the global figure for the use of ART conservatively represents less than 20% of the demand for ART treatment being met.
According to the World Health Organization Statistics 2020, approximately **186 million people worldwide face infertility-related problems**. The global assisted reproductive technology (ART) market was valued at **USD 27.59 billion in 2023** and is projected to grow to USD 41.41 billion by 2030. These figures indicate widespread demand for infertility treatment and large numbers of people seeking ART, in contrast with the much smaller global totals of ART-conceived births reported in clinical studies.
Globally indicates need of 24 million cycles annually. ART utilization is our ONLY global indicator of realized access to infertility care. In 2017, ICMART recorded 1,955,908 cycles from 79 countries. The presentation also lists delivery rates per embryo transfer ranging from 18.7% for autologous aspirations to 44.8% for PGT transfers.
The CDC recorded over 400,000 fertility treatment cycles in the United States in 2021, with the average age of women undergoing ART increasing to 36.4. IVF technology has made significant advancements since its inception in 1978. Success rates have improved, with women under 35 now experiencing live birth rates of almost 55%.
Spain had the highest share, with **nearly 9% of births resulting from assisted reproductive technology**, followed by Greece, Denmark, and Czechia. In most countries with available data, however, the share of births involving assisted reproductive technologies like IVF is **well below 10% of all births**. This reinforces that, although use of ART is common in many high-income countries, the majority of births — and thus many infertility treatments — do not result from ART.
ICMART’s vision is to provide comprehensive data on all ART cycles performed in the world, and to assist ART stakeholders in understanding global utilization and outcomes. The organization maintains world reports, research publications, and conference abstracts on assisted reproductive technology.
An estimated **157 million people alive at the end of the century will owe their lives to assisted reproductive technologies**, corresponding to about **1.4% of the global population**. This demographic projection, based on current and expected future use of ART, implies that even with expanding access, **only a small fraction of the world’s population will be born through ART**. The projection is grounded in historical data on ART utilization and success rates, showing that relatively few live births result compared with the number of individuals experiencing infertility and seeking treatment.
More than 13 million people worldwide have been born through IVF and other assisted reproductive technologies (ART), according to new global estimates. Across all ages of patients, 37.5% of ART cycles result in live births, though success rates vary depending on a number of factors including age, cause of infertility, and treatment protocol.
Since the first “test tube” baby was born in 1978, IVF has grown into the most common ART method, with a baby conceived this way now arriving every 35 seconds worldwide. Between 1978 and 2018, researchers found that 10 to 13 million babies were born via IVF and related methods, with preliminary figures from 2018 to 2023 adding another 3 to 4 million births.
What do you think of the claim?
Your challenge will appear immediately.
Challenge submitted!
For developers
This same pipeline is available via API.
Verify your AI's output programmatically.
/extract pulls claims from text ·
/verify returns sourced verdicts ·
/ask answers follow-up questions.
Continue your research
Verify a related claim next.
Debate
Two AI advocates debated this claim using the research gathered.
Argument for
Global data confirms that millions of people undergo infertility treatments annually, with an estimated 4 million assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycles performed each year (Source 3). However, the vast majority of these treatments do not result in a live birth, as evidenced by a global average delivery rate of just 15.4% per aspiration (Source 3) and official surveillance reports confirming that most individuals undergoing ART do not achieve a live birth in a given year (Source 20).
The Proponent's argument commits a category error by treating “4 million ART cycles” as “millions of people,” even though the brief's global sources quantify cycles rather than unique patients (Source 3, ESHRE), and the only explicit patient count provided is U.S.-specific (Source 4, CDC). The Proponent then cherry-picks per-aspiration or per-year cycle outcomes (Source 3; Source 20, CDC archive) while ignoring patient-level cumulative evidence showing that after multiple linked cycles more than half of patients ultimately achieve a live birth (Source 9; Source 10), which undercuts the motion's unqualified claim that “most” people do not.
Argument against
The motion is false because it conflates “millions of people” with “millions of ART cycles”: the best global sources quantify cycles (e.g., 3,568,635 cycles in 2018 in the ICMART world report via PubMed, Source 1; ~4 million cycles estimated annually in the ESHRE fact sheet, Source 3) and the only explicit people-count in the brief is U.S.-only (251,542 unique patients in 2022, Source 4), so the claim's worldwide “millions of people each year” is not supported. Moreover, “most do not have a live birth” is misleading when outcomes are properly measured cumulatively per patient rather than per cycle, since linked-cycle studies show that more than half of patients ultimately achieve a live birth after multiple cycles (cumulative live-birth rates exceeding 50% in Source 9 and Source 10), directly contradicting the motion's blanket “most” framing.
The Opponent's argument relies on a false dichotomy between cycles and patients, ignoring that with over 4 million annual cycles globally (Source 3) and a U.S. ratio of roughly 1.6 cycles per patient (Source 4), the worldwide patient count mathematically exceeds millions of people. Furthermore, the Opponent cherry-picks optimistic cumulative rates from localized, multi-cycle cohorts (Source 9, Source 10) to obscure the global reality that most people undergoing ART in any given year do not achieve a live birth (Source 20).
Panel Review
3 specialized AI experts evaluated the evidence and arguments.
Reviewer 1 — The Logic Examiner
The evidence clearly supports that ART is used at the scale of millions of cycles annually worldwide (e.g., ~3.6 million cycles in 2018 in the ICMART world report [1] and ~4 million estimated cycles per year in the ESHRE fact sheet [3]), and that per-cycle/per-transfer delivery or live-birth rates are well below 50% (e.g., delivery rates per transfer around ~31% in [1] and 15.4% per aspiration / 32.3% cumulative per started aspiration in [3]), which makes it likely that many treatments do not yield a live birth in that year. However, the claim asserts two patient-level propositions—"millions of people" each year and "most of those people do not have a live birth"—and the pool does not directly establish a global unique-patient count nor does it logically justify the unqualified "most people" conclusion given patient-level cumulative studies showing >50% of patients can ultimately have a live birth after multiple cycles in some cohorts [9][10], so the inference from cycle-level global data to the claim's people-level, across-the-board statement is not sound.
Reviewer 2 — The Source Auditor
High-authority sources such as PubMed (Source 1), CDC (Sources 2 and 4), and ESHRE (Source 3) confirm millions of ART cycles annually worldwide with per-aspiration or per-cycle delivery rates around 15-32%, directly supporting that most annual treatments do not yield live births; while older linked-cycle studies (Sources 9 and 10) show higher cumulative patient success, they do not override the claim's annual framing. The claim is therefore mostly true because reliable independent registries establish both the scale of annual users and the predominance of non-live-birth outcomes per year.
Reviewer 3 — The Precision Analyst
The claim has two parts: (1) 'millions of people' undergo ART annually, and (2) 'most of those people do not have a live birth.' On part (1): global sources quantify cycles (~4 million annually per Source 3, ~3.57 million in 2018 per Source 1), not unique patients. The U.S. data shows ~251,542 unique patients for ~435,426 cycles in 2022 (Source 4), a ratio of ~1.7 cycles per patient. Applying this ratio to 4 million global cycles yields roughly 2.3 million unique patients annually — so 'millions of people' is plausible and likely accurate, though the evidence directly counts cycles rather than patients globally. On part (2): 'most do not have a live birth' — per-cycle rates globally average ~15.4% per aspiration (Source 3) and ~31-37% per transfer/cycle (Sources 1, 11), meaning most cycles do not result in a live birth. However, the claim says 'most of those people,' which should be evaluated per patient. Cumulative multi-cycle data (Sources 9, 10) shows >50% of patients ultimately achieve a live birth after multiple cycles, which would make 'most do not have a live birth' false on a cumulative patient basis. But these cumulative studies are from specific cohorts (Australian data 2009, NEJM 2009) and may not represent global reality where many patients cannot afford multiple cycles. Source 20 (CDC) explicitly states 'most people undergoing ART do not achieve a live birth in a given year.' The claim's framing — 'each year' — is key: in any given year, most patients do not achieve a live birth, which is supported. The cumulative multi-cycle evidence is from older studies and specific populations. The claim as worded ('each year... most of those people do not have a live birth') is largely supported: millions of people (plausible via cycle-to-patient extrapolation) undergo ART annually, and in a given year most do not achieve a live birth. The precision issue is that global sources count cycles not patients, and cumulative rates complicate the 'most' qualifier.