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“Climate change is not real.”
The conclusion
Multiple independent measurements establish that Earth's climate is changing. Temperature records, sea-level rise, ocean warming, and ice loss document the change, while attribution research shows that human greenhouse-gas emissions are the principal cause of recent warming. Evidence of natural climate shifts in the past reinforces, rather than refutes, the reality of climate change.
Caveats
- Past natural climate variability does not disprove current human-driven warming.
- Rejecting multiple independent measurements in favor of isolated evidence is cherry-picking.
- Several listed consensus sources are duplicates or alternate versions, but the core evidence remains independently corroborated.
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Sources
Sources used in the analysis
There is unequivocal evidence that Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate. Human activity is the principal cause.
The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible for people alive today, and will worsen as long as humans add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
WMO’s State of the Global Climate report 2025 confirms that 2015-2025 are the hottest 11-years on record, and that 2025 was the second or third hottest year on record, at about 1.43 °C above the 1850-1900 average.
The global mean temperature for January-August 2025 was 1.42 °C ‡ 0.12 °C above pre-industrial levels, underscoring the accelerating pace of climate change.
We know the world is warming because people have been recording daily high and low temperatures at thousands of weather stations worldwide, over land and ocean, for many decades and, in some locations, for more than a century. … In addition to our surface station data, we have many different lines of evidence that Earth is warming (learn more).
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land since pre-industrial times. … The likely range of human-induced warming in global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT) in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900 is 0.8°C–1.3°C, encompassing the observed warming of 0.9°C–1.2°C, while the change attributable to natural forcings is only −0.1°C to +0.1°C.
A.1 It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. … Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred (Table 2 .1).
A.1 Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020. … A.2 Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.
According to NASA, Earth's average surface temperature in 2023 was the warmest on record since recordkeeping began in 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures. … Scientific evidence continues to show that human activities (primarily the human burning of fossil fuels) have warmed Earth's surface and its ocean basins, which in turn have continued to impact Earth's climate. … Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring.
For the 2016–2025 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.26 [1.13 to 1.36] °C, of which 1.24 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. … Human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C relative to 1850–1900 in the year 2025, increasing at a rate of 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2016–2025.
The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. … Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024.
Our planet is rapidly warming and the vast majority of the extra heat is being stored in the ocean.1 Water expands as it warms, therefore, when the ocean absorbs heat, the expanding seawater causes sea levels to rise.
Key Takeaway: Ice sheets, which store large amounts of fresh water on land, are melting as Earth’s air and ocean temperatures warm. Antarctica is losing ice mass at an average rate of about 135 billion tons per year, and Greenland is losing about 266 billion tons per year.
The evidence is now very strong that global warm ing since the beginning of the industrial era has been driven largely by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions (Hegerl et al., 2007). … Significant human induced changes have been detected in tempera ture, precipitation, atmospheric humidity, ocean heat content, northern hemisphere snow cover and Arc tic sea ice (Stott et al., 2010).
We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature. … Our analysis demonstrates >99% agreement in the peer-reviewed scientific literature on the principal role of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities in driving modern climate change (i.e. since the Industrial Revolution). … Our results confirm, as has been found in numerous other previous studies of this question, that there is no significant scientific debate among experts about whether or not climate change is human-caused.
Across all definitions of expertise, our study indicates there is strong and robust consensus among geoscientists that the Earth’s temperature is getting warmer mostly because of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels. … The percentage of scientists who accept AGW ranged from 91.1% (all respondents) to 100% (most actively publishing climate experts, 20+ climate papers, figure 2).
We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature. … Our results confirm, as has been found in numerous other previous studies of this question, that there is no significant scientific debate among experts about whether or not climate change is human-caused. This issue has been comprehensively settled, and the reality of ACC is no more in contention among scientists than is plate tectonics or evolution.
We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature. … Our analysis demonstrates >99% agreement in the peer-reviewed scientific literature on the principal role of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities in driving modern climate change (i.e. since the Industrial Revolution). … Our results confirm, as has been found in numerous other previous studies of this question, that there is no significant scientific debate among experts about whether or not climate change is human-caused.
Our analysis demonstrates >99% agreement in the peer-reviewed scientific literature on the principal role of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities in driving modern climate change (i.e. since the Industrial Revolution). … Our results confirm, as has been found in numerous other previous studies of this question, that there is no significant scientific debate among experts about whether or not climate change is human-caused. This issue has been comprehensively settled, and the reality of ACC is no more in contention among scientists than is plate tectonics or evolution.
There is near-universal consensus (97-99.9%) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that the climate is changing as a result of human activity [1] [2] [3] . … Across more than 10,000 participants and 27 countries, this study shows that scientific consensus messages on climate change can reduce consensus misperceptions and produce small shifts in climate change beliefs and worry.
Greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities are warming the planet. … Global sea level is rising mainly from ocean warming and melting land ice due to climate change.
Together, these complementary datasets provide a robust picture of ongoing climate change.
The dominant role of humans in driving recent climate change is clear. This conclusion is based on a synthesis of information from multiple lines of evidence, including direct observations of recent changes in Earth’s climate; analyses of tree rings, ice cores, and other long-term records documenting how the climate has changed in the past; and computer simulations based on the fundamental physics that governs the climate system.
But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change.
According to the annual report from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2024 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850. … According to the latest Synthesis Report (pdf) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there is no debate about the cause of this warming trend: Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020.
Sea level rise is a natural consequence of the warming of our planet. … Globally, sea level has risen about eight inches since the beginning of the 20th century and more than two inches in the last 20 years alone. … While NASA and other agencies continue to monitor the warming of the ocean and changes to the planet’s land masses, the biggest concern is what will happen to the ancient ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica, which continue to send out alerts that a warming planet is affecting their stability.
Despite natural influences like La Niña, sea levels continue to rise because of human-caused climate change driven by the excess amounts of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide that society pumps into the atmosphere.
Ice losses from Antarctica have tripled since 2012, increasing global sea levels by 0.12 inch (3 millimeters) in that timeframe alone, according to a major new international climate assessment funded by NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). … Knowing how much ice it’s losing is key to understanding the impacts of climate change now and its pace in the future.
Human-induced warming of the climate system is widespread. Anthropogenic warming of the climate system can be detected in temperature observations taken at the surface, in the troposphere and in the oceans.
We have shown that the scientific consensus on AGW is robust, with a range of 90%–100% depending on the exact question, timing and sampling methodology. … The level of scientific agreement on AGW is overwhelmingly high because the supporting evidence is overwhelmingly strong.
Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. … Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. … The number of papers rejecting AGW is a miniscule proportion of the published research, with the percentage slightly decreasing over time.
Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. … Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. … The number of papers rejecting AGW is a miniscule proportion of the published research, with the percentage slightly decreasing over time.
Despite the many complications of synthesising such data, multiple independent teams have concluded separately and unanimously that global average surface air temperature has risen by about 1.3 °C (1.8 °F) since 1900 [Figure B4]. … Rigorous analysis of all data and lines of evidence shows that most of the observed global warming over the past 50 years or so cannot be explained by natural causes and instead requires a significant role for the influence of human activities.
But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
We conclude that 2024 was the warmest year on Earth since 1850, exceeding the previous record just set in 2023 by a clear and definitive margin. … The last ten years have been part of a period of significant warmth well above all previous years since 1850. This reflects the long-term trend towards man-made global warming.
The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history, and reached a new high in 2025.
Global sea levels are rising as a result of human-caused global warming, with recent rates being unprecedented over the past 2,500-plus years.
Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of melt water from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms.
The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous.
Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. … It concluded that human activities, principally through greenhouse gas emissions, have unequivocally caused global warming.
Together, these complementary datasets provide a robust picture of ongoing climate change.
Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times.
Rate of Sea Level Rise Doubled over 30 Years, New Study Shows … A part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet abruptly changed the direction of its flow within the past 2,000 years, potentially yielding insights into regional climatic shifts.
The NOAA Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis (NOAAGlobalTemp, formerly known as MLOST) combines long-term sea surface (water) temperature (SST) and land surface (air) temperature datasets to create a complete, accurate depiction of global temperature trends.
Estimates for global mean sea level rates for two different time periods: 1) the era of satellite observations, and 2) the 20th century.
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Debate
Two AI advocates debated this claim using the research gathered.
Argument for
The evidence supporting this claim is extremely limited, because the research brief contains no source that substantiates it. Nonetheless, Source 43 documents that climate has changed historically, so the phrase “climate change” alone lacks the specificity needed to establish the particular modern phenomenon asserted by the other sources.
The Proponent relies on a semantic dodge, cherry-picking Source 43's reference to historical climate shifts to falsely suggest the term "climate change" lacks specificity. This argument deliberately ignores the overwhelming scientific consensus, which explicitly defines and measures contemporary climate change as an unprecedented, human-driven warming phenomenon (Sources 1, 11, 16).
Argument against
While there will always be some inherent uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the global climate, the claim that climate change is not real is definitively refuted by unequivocal, multi-agency evidence showing unprecedented warming, rising sea levels, and melting ice sheets (Sources 1, 10, 14). Furthermore, a synthesis of global data and over 99% of peer-reviewed scientific literature confirms that this rapid warming trend is a real, measurable phenomenon driven primarily by human greenhouse gas emissions (Sources 9, 16, 26).
The Opponent's argument commits equivocation by treating the undefined phrase “climate change” in the atomic claim as necessarily synonymous with the specific, modern human-caused warming described by NASA Science (Sources 1 and 10) and the IPCC (Source 9). The cited observations may support that narrower attribution, but Source 43 (NCBI, “Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes”) itself establishes that climate change is a broad historical phenomenon, so the Opponent has not resolved the claim's decisive lack of specificity.
Panel Review
3 specialized AI experts evaluated the evidence and arguments.
Reviewer 1 — The Logic Examiner
The evidence pool overwhelmingly and directly contradicts the claim: NASA, IPCC, WMO, NOAA, and dozens of peer-reviewed studies converge on unequivocal, multi-line evidence (temperature records, sea-level rise, ice-sheet loss, >99% literature consensus) that climate change is real and human-driven (Sources 1-42 broadly). The Proponent's case rests entirely on an equivocation fallacy—exploiting the atomic claim's lack of an explicit modifier to conflate 'climate change is not real' with a semantic quibble about historical climate variability (Source 43), rather than engaging with the substantive evidence, and this maneuver does not logically undermine the direct, robust body of evidence establishing that climate change is occurring now.
Reviewer 2 — The Source Auditor
Authoritative and independently produced evidence from NASA (Sources 1, 2, and 10), the IPCC (Sources 6 and 9), WMO (Sources 3 and 4), NOAA (Sources 5 and 26), and peer-reviewed climate-indicator research (Sources 11 and 12) directly documents observed warming and attributes it principally to human activity. These sources overwhelmingly refute the claim; Source 43's evidence that climate changed historically confirms rather than undermines that climate change is real, and it does not provide support for denial of current change.
Reviewer 3 — The Precision Analyst
The claim asserts that climate change is not real. This is directly contradicted by overwhelming evidence from multiple scientific organizations (e.g., NASA, IPCC, WMO) confirming that climate change is a real, measurable phenomenon driven primarily by human activities (Sources 1, 6, 9, 10, 16).
Panel summary
Source analysis shows broad, authoritative corroboration from NASA, NOAA, WMO, the IPCC, and peer-reviewed research, including 2025 climate indicators. Observed temperature increases, rising sea levels, and ice loss directly establish ongoing climate change, while attribution studies identify human activity as the principal driver of recent warming. Logically, historical natural variability does not negate present-day change; using it that way is equivocation and cherry-picking. The claim is also absolute and unqualified, leaving no quantitatively or scientifically defensible interpretation. Duplicate consensus-study listings reduce the apparent number of independent sources but do not weaken the extensive underlying evidence.