Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was preceded by months of Russian propaganda and covert operations meant to provide it with a pretext for war. The United States responded with a creative and unprecedented strategy of declassifying and publicizing intelligence that debunked, or in some cases, pre-bunked, Russian claims. The intelligence revelations were clearly meant to undermine Russia’s justifications for war, although American diplomacy was probably also driven by some genuine hope for a diplomatic solution.

The U.S. government has said Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment, and in recent weeks it has taken the unusual step of repeatedly releasing details of Russian planning, some based on intelligence, in an effort to deter an invasion and to counter what officials say is Russia’s own disinformation campaign. A senior administration official told reporters that “we are trying to prevent Russia from taking military action against Ukraine by making clear we know what they are planning and we are calling them out.”

"The Russian military has begun a brutal assault on the people of Ukraine without provocation, without justification, without necessity. This is a premeditated attack. Vladimir Putin has been planning this for months, as I've been—as we've been saying all along." The speech notes that Russia moved over 175,000 troops and other preparations near Ukraine's border, and adds: "For weeks—for weeks—we have been warning that this would happen. And now it's unfolding largely as we predicted." It also states: "We've shared declassified evidence about Russia's plans and cyber attacks and false pretexts so that there can be no confusion or coverup about what Putin was doing."

One distinctive feature of American and British intelligence in the pre-invasion period was that it was used publicly as ‘pre-emptive intelligence’ designed to undermine the pretexts for the invasion that were offered by Putin and, ultimately, to dissuade him from going any further down the path to war.

The State Department’s "Disarming Disinformation" page describes the Kremlin’s use of “false pretexts” and disinformation narratives to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including claims that NATO and the United States provoked the war. It characterizes these narratives as part of Russia’s “disinformation roulette,” asserting that Moscow falsely portrays the West as having orchestrated or manipulated the conflict, while the U.S. position is that Russia alone is responsible for launching the invasion.

The record is clear that Washington tried both deterrence and reassurance to dissuade Putin from invading Ukraine, but the strategy failed. Russia’s frequent manipulation of the risk of nuclear escalation failed, moreover, to deter the United States and NATO from gradually expanding their military assistance to Ukraine as well as their sanctions on Russia.

Reporting on a White House readout, BBC writes: "US President Joe Biden has warned there is a 'distinct possibility' Russia might invade Ukraine next month, the White House says." It quotes National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne: "President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February. He has said this publicly and we have been warning about this for months." The article notes that Russia was denying it was planning an attack at the time.

In official prepared remarks, Biden said: "We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week — in the coming days. We believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people." He framed the public warnings as a deterrent and transparency strategy: "We are calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly, not because we want a conflict, but because we’re doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine."

In televised remarks, Biden stated that the assault on Ukraine was "without provocation, without justification, without necessity" and that it was "a premeditated attack Vladimir Putin has been planning for months, as I've been saying all along." He added: "For weeks we had been warning that this would happen and now it's unfolding largely as we predicted." He emphasized: "We've been transparent with the world. We've shared declassified evidence about Russia's plans and cyber attacks and false pretexts so that there could be no confusion or cover up about what Putin was doing."

In December 2021, The Washington Post reported that US intelligence believed Russia was planning ‘a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early-2022’. An unnamed official in the Biden administration added, ‘The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment’.[7] The commentary notes that this was part of a wider U.S. strategy of ‘intelligence prebuttal’—using declassified intelligence to pre-empt and counter Russian disinformation and denials about its intentions toward Ukraine, rather than to provoke an invasion.[7]

U.S. intelligence agencies accurately predicted Vladimir Putin would order an invasion. Ultimately, U.S. intelligence agencies underestimated Zelenskyy and Ukraine while overestimating Russia and its president. Lawmakers from both parties questioned whether the White House held back some support due to pessimistic assessments of Ukraine.

Senior administration officials said Thursday that the U.S. believes Russia has already recruited players to stage a propaganda video depicting “graphic scenes of a staged false explosion with corpses, actors depicting mourners, and images of destroyed locations and military equipment.” The White House publicized the Kremlin’s alleged plans to fabricate an attack Thursday, in the hopes it would dissuade Moscow from going through with its latest disinformation effort. Researchers at the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis have sorted through an avalanche of disinformation produced by Russian state media groups … that claim Russia has no intent to invade Ukraine and that the West fabricated the invasion story as an excuse for its own military buildup.

It does appear that America’s warnings of imminent provocations may have prevented Russia from acting on those plans. Carrying out such an attack after the fact would have been undercut by the advance warning. The U.S. intelligence revelations did not change Putin’s plans to expand his invasion of Ukraine. They did, however, change the information environment in which his war took place.

New intelligence in the last 24 hours shows Russia now has 80 percent of the forces that they would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a western intelligence official and a U.S. official. Those forces are now moving closer to the border. Russia says they are not going to invade, and the new intelligence does not include evidence that Putin has made any final decision.

The Biden administration has gone to unusual lengths to publicly share intelligence about Russia’s threat to Ukraine, using targeted media leaks and other methods to warn the world of everything from the specifics of Moscow’s troop build-up to an alleged Kremlin plot to fake an attack that justifies an invasion. U.S. officials say the disclosures are carefully vetted and represent only a small amount of the information America and its allies have gathered as Russian leader Vladimir Putin amasses troops along Ukraine’s border. The goals, they say, include preemptively exposing — and thus derailing — Russian lies that could lead to a war while also putting America and its European allies on the same page. Russia denies it has plans to invade Ukraine.

NPR reports that U.S. officials had been "sounding the alarm" about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, with President Biden warning Putin that if Russia invaded, the U.S. and its allies would "respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia." The piece notes: "Despite U.S. officials sounding the alarm, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists Ukrainian intelligence does not track with what the U.S. is saying and he does not believe an attack from Russia is imminent."

NPR reported in February 2022 that as Russia threatened Ukraine, the U.S. government was attempting to “pre-bunk” Russian propaganda by releasing intelligence about potential false-flag operations and invasion plans. Experts described this as an effort to get ahead of Russian disinformation campaigns that would claim Ukraine had attacked or provoked Russia, thereby justifying a Russian invasion. The piece frames the U.S. approach as informational defense and strategic transparency; it does not cite evidence that the Biden administration’s warnings were fabricated or intended to trigger Russia into invading.

WASHINGTON (AP) — In a break from the past, the U.S. and its allies are increasingly revealing their intelligence findings as they confront Russian preparations for a possible invasion of Ukraine, looking to undercut Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans by exposing them and deflecting his efforts to shape world opinion. Experts credit the White House for declassifying intelligence and moving to rebut false claims before they’re made — a so-called “prebuttal” that undercuts their effectiveness better than an after-the-fact explanation. Moscow has dismissed Washington’s claims as hysteria and invoked past American intelligence failures, including false information put forward about Iraq’s weapons programs. One narrative those outlets are promoting — in apparent response to the recent American allegations — is the U.S. may be planning its own false-flag operation to trigger a confrontation in eastern Ukraine.

Covering Biden’s February 18, 2022 remarks, CNBC quotes him: "We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days." Biden added: "We are loudly and repeatedly exposing Russia's intentions, not out of a desire for conflict, but to eliminate any pretext for invasion." U.S. officials the same day said around 190,000 Russian troops were near Ukraine’s borders despite Moscow claiming some withdrawals.

The BBC’s live coverage on Feb. 18, 2022 records President Biden saying he was “convinced” Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine, citing intelligence and the ongoing Russian troop buildup. His comments came amid Western accusations that Russia was trying to stage a fake crisis in eastern Ukraine as a reason to launch an invasion. The live report reflects U.S. certainty about Russia’s intentions shortly before the invasion, but it does not provide any indication that U.S. warnings were themselves part of an American disinformation operation designed to provoke Russia.

The U.S. government’s decision to declassify intelligence on Russian decision-making leading up to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the need to revisit the U.S. government’s bias toward secrecy.[1] “In response, the Biden administration endeavored to **dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine** but rally partners and allies in case diplomacy fails. Senior leaders began directly engaging European allies to provide warnings that October. … The Administration’s dissemination of intelligence to the public spanned both particular and general information regarding Russian military plans.”[1] The article characterizes the campaign as an information warfare strategy aimed at deterrence and alliance cohesion, not as disinformation designed to provoke an invasion.[1]

“Before Russia’s unprovoked February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom undertook an aggressive public and private information campaign to attempt to achieve two concurrent objectives. The **primary goal** was to convince their allies of the threat of Russia’s pending offensive … and to a lesser degree a **secondary goal** was to attempt to **deter Moscow from acting**.”[2] “Throughout the winter of 2021 and the early months of 2022, the United States highlighted a steady drumbeat of indicators and warnings about Russian intentions and likely plans vis-à-vis Ukraine. … By disclosing sensitive intelligence—even at possible risk to sources and methods—the United States **signaled to Russia that it knew its plans and intentions in advance, thereby possibly achieving a deterring effect**.”[2] The analysis does not describe these disclosures as disinformation, but as accurate intelligence used strategically.[2]

Chicago public broadcaster WTTW describes a call between Biden and Putin: "President Joe Biden told Russia's Vladimir Putin that invading Ukraine would cause 'widespread human suffering' and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but equally prepared for other scenarios." It adds that U.S. officials were warning an invasion could be imminent, while Russia denied any plan to invade and accused the U.S. of hysteria.

ABC News reported that U.S. officials accused Russia of conducting a “disinformation storm” portraying Ukraine as the aggressor and building public support for further Russian invasion. The State Department said this campaign was part of Russia’s “pretext” to invade and that the U.S. hoped “transparency can undercut any pretext Russian operatives or their Ukrainian colleagues may create,” referring to alleged Russian false-flag operations. Russia publicly denied the U.S. allegations, calling them “complete disinformation,” but the article does not offer evidence that the Biden administration’s advance warnings were intentionally false or crafted to lure Russia into war.

“Western governments were willing to **declassify information and assessments to support warnings of imminent Russian aggression**.”[3] “As early as October 2021, the intelligence indicated a ‘significant strategic attack’ was likely, resulting in high-level meetings in the White House. … Intelligence officials assessed in October 2021 that the Russians believed they could ‘take Kyiv in seventy-two hours’, leading to high level briefings in the White House.”[3] “The ‘prebuttal’ strategy deployed against Russian disinformation and prevarication represents a significant innovation, and the **direct use of intelligence to combat Russia’s denials** appears to have been taken at an early stage.”[3] This peer‑reviewed article analyzes warning intelligence and describes the releases as efforts to warn and deter, not as fabricated disinformation to provoke an invasion.[3]

The Biden administration got information on a potential Russian invasion as early as March 2021, at the time of large Russian military exercises. The U.S. attempted to deter Russia from invading by proposing a U.S.-Russia summit and meeting with Russian officials in November 2021 and January 2022. The efforts failed.

President Biden said yesterday this invasion is unfolding largely as the U.S. had predicted. Accurate U.S. intelligence, some of it shared publicly, did not prevent the Russian attack. Now, the backstory is CIA Director William Burns went to Russia last November to tell the Russians what the U.S. was already seeing about a potential invasion. The hope, of course, was that it would deter Vladimir Putin. It obviously didn’t. He supports this effort to share intelligence publicly … And while it didn’t stop Putin, it did counter the Russian disinformation narrative, this notion that Ukraine was somehow threatening Russia.

In a Defense Department account of Biden’s 2023 speech in Warsaw, the Pentagon summarizes his characterization of the war: "Biden has called the Russian invasion 'an unprovoked war.'" It notes that he said: "President Putin chose this war," calling it a tragedy and stressing that Western nations "did not seek this war, nor do they seek to destroy or control Russia." The piece reflects the administration’s position that Russia, not the U.S., initiated the conflict.

“In the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, the U.S. intelligence community **declassified and released to the world troves of intelligence to undercut Russia’s narrative that it wasn’t massing troops or planning to invade Ukraine**.”[6] “In recent years, as foreign information operations have become more prominent and efforts to effectively combat them have appeared difficult, the U.S. military and intelligence community (IC) have emphasized exposing them. **Agencies declassified intelligence to disclose Russian troop movements and actions ahead of the assault on Ukraine.** Those disclosures continued even after the invasion.”[6] The article describes these as authorized strategic intelligence disclosures aimed at countering Russian disinformation, not as a U.S. disinformation operation.[6]

Disinformation (a lie or exaggeration meant to sway opinion) has been spread by the Russian state, state-controlled media, propagandists, and Russian web brigades using fake profiles on social media. Russian propaganda often claims that NATO and its “eastward expansion” provoked the invasion and that Russia had to invade Ukraine in self-defense. Various Russian narratives allege that the West fabricated the notion of an impending invasion and that Russia was responding to threats, but these are widely characterized by researchers and governments as propaganda and falsehoods.

An NBC News segment on Biden’s public messaging before the invasion reports: "President Biden issued the bleak warning a day after Russian President Putin said Russia had begun withdrawing troops from Ukraine's border, a claim the U.S. has not yet verified." The report says Biden warned "an invasion remains distinctly possible" and that officials were "still bracing for a possible invasion" even as he stated that a diplomatic resolution was still possible.

NBC’s report explains that U.S. officials were **using intelligence to fight an information war with Russia**: “WHAT THEY'RE DOING IS THEY'RE TRYING TO **PREEMPT THE RUSSIANS, GET AHEAD OF RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION**, even mess with Vladimir Putin's brain.”[8] Ken Dilanian further summarizes the strategy: “CLEAR what the strategy is here is **to get stuff out that is designed to again, show the Russians the United States knows what they're doing, put the world on notice that this is happening**.”[8] The segment discusses preemptive declassification of intelligence about possible Russian false flags and invasion plans; it does not present evidence that the information itself was false or intended to provoke Russia into invading.[8]

Days before Moscow launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine, Washington warned Brussels the invasion was "going to happen." Some observers in the thread characterized the warnings as "more of a political play than sharing actual intel," but this is an unverified social-media discussion rather than reliable evidence.

The Biden administration has charged Russia's global television network RT with conducting secretive information warfare on a global scale, functioning as an extension of Moscow’s intelligence agencies. This includes allegations of fundraising efforts to procure weapons for Russian troops engaged in combat against Ukraine. Officials said RT's propaganda and “disinformation” has helped undercut international support for Ukraine, as part of a broader Kremlin strategy to manipulate narratives about the war.

President Joe Biden said Friday that the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is "very high" and that it could happen "within several days." He said the U.S. was seeing continued buildup of Russian forces around Ukraine and that Washington was sharing its assessment with allies and the public. Administration officials and outside analysts noted that the public warnings were designed both to prepare allies and to try to remove any plausible deniability for Moscow, by making clear that Washington saw an invasion coming and that any Russian claim of provocation would be disinformation.

This Guardian‑linked video report notes: “In November 2021, President Joe Biden **orders his spy agencies to downgrade lots of the intelligence to help persuade allies that the threat is real**.”[5] It explains that by October 2021 “London and Washington believe Putin is preparing to invade, partly based on satellite imagery and partly based on secret intelligence intercepts.”[5] The narrative frames the declassification as an effort to convince skeptical allies of a genuine threat, not as an attempt to deceive or provoke Russia.[5]

The official reported the Biden administration believes Russia is laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign that portrays Ukraine as a threat, thereby creating a pretext for possible military action. According to the official, Russian messages on social platforms and state media are trying to convince audiences that Ukraine is preparing attacks, which U.S. officials say is false and part of an effort to justify an invasion.

The peer‑reviewed article’s PDF version reiterates that “Western governments were willing to **declassify information and assessments to support warnings of imminent Russian aggression**.”[4] It quotes reporting that U.S. intelligence briefings in December 2021 showed officials believed Russia had deployed 70,000 troops and could deploy up to 175,000 along the border, “capable of an offensive in early 2022.” These deployments were said to be designed by Russia “to ‘obfuscate intentions and to create uncertainty’.”[4] The paper emphasizes that for the U.S. and U.K., “warning mattered as it provided a window to support Ukraine, and convince allies that an invasion was coming,” and that Biden reportedly said, “Okay, we can dumb this down and make it unclassified,” referring to declassification for timely publication.[4]

In coverage of Biden’s remarks on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, network correspondents described how the president and his aides were warning that an invasion could occur “within days,” based on intelligence assessments. They emphasized that the administration was trying to dispel “confusion that the Kremlin and its allies here are trying to sow” and to call out “the general disinformation ginning up the tension but also looking for a pretext,” rather than to provoke Russia into action.

The State Department’s Ukraine and Russia page outlines U.S. policy tools used in response to Russian actions, including “holding Russia accountable for its OSCE commitments, documentation of war crimes, and supporting the Ukrainian people through a wide range of tools.”[9] It presents Russia’s February 2022 assault as “Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified further invasion of Ukraine” and emphasizes support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, not an intention to provoke the invasion.[9]