In 1788, a drought hit France and caused severe crop failure. Grain prices soared. A growing part of the population went hungry. Several historians have hypothesized that the drought of 1788 and ensuing harvest failure affected the course of the French Revolution. Using data on the exact locations of around 300 peasant revolts, the paper shows that areas with more severe drought were significantly more likely to experience peasant revolts.

The suffering caused by the deficient harvest of 1788 intensified the hardships produced by an ongoing economic crisis. The text directly connects the bad harvest to worsening conditions in the year before the Revolution.

A severe drought in the spring of 1788 devastated staple crops, leaving them crippled and withered. Grain shortages led to skyrocketing prices, and climatic stress appears to have been the ignition point for the revolutionary fervor. The convergence of climatic stress, economic instability, and political discord culminated in 1788 and 1789.

The winter of 1788-1789, Jefferson’s last in Paris, was exceptionally harsh. Frost fell in early November and the ground remained frozen until April. Transporting raw materials, food, and finished products became nearly impossible and water powered mills everywhere were inoperable. There were inadequate stockpiles of flour owing to the poor harvests in 1787 and 1788 and bread became scarce everywhere; nearly one-fifth of the Parisians received food from charities that winter. Jefferson noted that “there have been some mobs occasioned by the want of bread in different parts of the kingdom” of France.

A severe drought in the spring of 1788 left staple crops crippled and withered. On July 13, 1788, one of the most severe hailstorms in recorded history swept across France, destroying fields and vineyards. France was then hit by the coldest winter in almost a century, which froze an already starving population and suspended outdoor labor.

The bread riots, caused by the high bread prices and, ultimately, by the drought, were used by the middle class for overthrowing the existing regime. The passage directly links drought, bread prices, and unrest in the lead-up to the revolution.

This historical essay highlights the impact of extreme weather on events in 1789: "In the bitterly cold winter of 1788/89, heavy snowfall blocked roads, major rivers froze over and much commerce came to a standstill. When the spring thaw came, it flooded thousands of hectares of farming lands." It adds that "a prolonged drought now added to the chaos. Rivers dried up and watermills came to a standstill, resulting in a flour shortage — and yet another surge in food prices." The author connects these climatic shocks to social unrest, describing the Great Fear as "the culmination of a subsistence crisis" driven in part by "sudden climatic shifts that pushed millions of French peasants across the fine line separating survival from deprivation," and concludes that "The events of 1789 stemmed in considerable, and inconspicuous, part from the farmer's vulnerability to cycles of wet and cold, warmth and drought."

This article explains that in the years before 1789, "bad harvests caused grain shortages and drove up bread prices," and that by 1788–1789, ordinary French people were spending the majority of their income on bread. It notes that bread riots and protests over the price of grain and flour were widespread in 1789 and describes these as a major factor in the revolutionary crisis, linking subsistence distress directly to social unrest and political radicalization.

In early 1788, the rain dried up again and by May around three-quarters of France was in drought. Severe hailstorms on July 13, 1788 decimated crops and vegetables in the north-west and around Paris. The poor harvest of 1788 was compounded by the winter that followed, which was the coldest in decades.

The year 1788 was bad, even worse than the years before. Extreme droughts alternated with short, heavy downpours. Due to the extreme cold, the winter seed froze, and perennials like grapevines and fruit trees died as well. The crisis became existential because previous winters had not had good harvests either and supplies were already gone.

In the summer of 1788, severe drought led to crop failure. Crop failure was followed by peasant uprisings that finally led to the French Revolution. The dry and hot summer was followed by a particularly cold winter, and ice blocked navigation on rivers, worsening shortages and living costs.

Historical syntheses of the French Revolution frequently note that adverse weather in 1788–1789—including drought, hailstorms, and an exceptionally harsh winter—contributed to poor harvests, grain shortages, and soaring bread prices. These conditions intensified existing social tensions and helped fuel urban bread riots and rural unrest in the months leading up to the Revolution.

The spring of 1788 was a disaster for the planting season in France. After an abnormally dry spring that dramatically affected crops, there was a summer of extreme temperatures and random downpours. One such event, the Great Hailstorm of Paris, ripped through the countryside on July 13, 1788. The winter of 1788/1789 would be one of the coldest on record.

Bad weather was the cause of poor harvests and food shortages. The resulting vulnerability helped drive famine conditions and social instability in the period leading up to the French Revolution.