Claim analyzed

Science

“Lightning never strikes the same place twice.”

False
1/10

The claim is not supported by the evidence. Scientific and government sources consistently state that lightning can strike the same place more than once, and prominent tall structures are hit repeatedly, sometimes many times per year. Because the claim uses the absolute term “never,” these documented counterexamples make it false.

Caveats

  • The word “never” makes this an absolute claim; a single verified repeat strike is enough to disprove it.
  • Folk usage of the phrase as a saying or metaphor does not change its factual inaccuracy as a statement about lightning.
  • Tall, isolated, or elevated objects are especially prone to repeated strikes, so treating a prior strike as protection is dangerous.

Sources

Sources used in the analysis

#1
National Severe Storms Laboratory Severe Weather 101: Lightning FAQ

Can lightning strike the same place twice? Lightning does hit the same spot (or almost the same spot) more than once, contrary to folk wisdom. Taller objects are more likely than shorter objects to produce the upward channel.

#2
National Weather Service Lightning - National Weather Service

Lightning may hit the same place or person several times. Ray Sullivan, a retired National Park Ranger, was hit 7 times!

In general, the taller the object, the more often it is struck. For example, a 30‑m tower located in Florida is struck by lightning, on average, once in 3 to 4 years, while a 60‑m tower is struck on average once every year. If the object is very tall, such object‑initiated lightning may occur literally dozens of times every thunderstorm season. For example, the Ostankino TV tower in Moscow, Russia, which is 540 m high, experiences about 30 lightning strikes per year. In summary, from the lightning standpoint, the saying "lightning never strikes the same place twice" is certainly not true. It does strike its preferential targets such as tall towers over and over again.

#4
CDC Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) About Lightning

Yes. Lightning can strike the same place twice. In fact, lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially a tall, pointy, isolated object. For example, the Empire State Building is hit by lightning about 25 times a year.

#5
National Weather Service Lightning Safety

Myth: Lightning never strikes twice in the same place! Fact: It has been well documented that lightning may strike certain objects frequently.

#6
NASA Spinoff Lightning Often Strikes Twice

Contrary to popular misconception, lightning often strikes the same place twice. Certain conditions are just ripe for a bolt of electricity to come zapping down; and a lightning strike is powerful enough to do a lot of damage wherever it hits.

#7
NOAA (Journal article in NOAA repository) 2020-11-03 | Antenna structures and cloud‑to‑ground lightning location

Tower height is positively correlated with CG occurrence; towers taller than 400 m above ground level experience a median increase of 150% in CG lightning density compared to a region 2 km to 5 km away. Tower height is correlated with lightning occurrence with towers ≥500 m tall having a median frequency … CG frequency was positively correlated with tower height with 98.2% of matching towers having a height ≥200 m.

#8
KENS 5 Verify: Yes, lightning can strike the same place twice

The answer: FALSE. Lightning can strike the same place twice. It happens multiple places, multiple times per year. Especially tall objects like towers can be struck multiple times, even within one storm.

#9
National Weather Service Lightning Safety Tips from the National Weather Service

There are no safe places outside in a thunderstorm. If you hear thunder, the storm is already close enough that lightning could strike you and you need to get to shelter immediately.

#10
National Weather Service Lightning Myths

Fact: Lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially if it's a tall, pointy, isolated object. The Empire State Building is hit an average of 23 times a year.

#11
KDVR Fact or Myth? Common thunder and lightning phrases you may still believe

Conversely, the idea that lightning never strikes the same location twice is false. According to the National Weather Service, lightning can and frequently does hit the same spot multiple times, particularly if it is a tall, pointed structure.

#12
IFLScience 2019-02-28 | Lightning Does Strike Twice On The Same Path, And Now We Know Why

The old saying “lightning never strikes twice in the same place” couldn't be more wrong, at least taken literally. At Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela there are 1.2 million lightning strikes a year, but even in more usual places it is common for there to be two or more lightning strikes that follow the same route to the ground within seconds of each other. It turns out, the negative charges inside a thundercloud are not discharged all in a single flash, but are partly stored alongside the main channel at various breaks, and can trigger a second strike. The remaining negative charge can be discharged shortly afterward in a second strike, reusing the same channel.

#13
Storm Highway MYTH: Lightning never strikes the same place twice

A television tower or tall skyscraper often experiences a direct strike as frequently as every thirty seconds during more intense thunderstorms, with a total of three to over a dozen strikes per every half‑hour interval that a storm is overhead. Towers or skyscrapers that reach or exceed the 1,000 foot mark are virtually guaranteed to take at least one direct hit during every thunderstorm that passes overhead. Based on our observations and collected images of actual tower/skyscraper strikes, a structure in the midwestern and northeastern USA with a height over 1,500 feet AGL receives an average of between 2 and 6 strikes during each thunderstorm that passes directly over the structure… we can conclude that these structures receive an estimated 40 to 90 strikes per year, with anomalous years likely producing no more than 125.

#14
FOX Weather Debunking 7 myths about lightning

The fact is that lightning can and does strike the same place twice. The antenna on the Empire State Building is hit at least 25 times a year, according to esbnyc.com.

#15
Encyclopaedia Britannica Can Lightning Strike the Same Place Twice?

In reality, lightning can and will strike the same place twice, whether it be during the same storm or even centuries later. Even during the same thunderstorm, there is nothing stopping a lightning bolt from striking the same place it had struck previously, even if it was as little as a few seconds earlier or as much as centuries later. This makes the likelihood of a place being struck by lightning multiple times incredibly high over a long period of time.

#16
ScienceAlert 2024-01-23 | Lightning Really Does Strike Twice, And This Is Where It Happens Most

We've known for some time that the old adage about the repeat performance of lightning is not, in fact, true. The powerful bolts of electricity from the sky can, and frequently do, make contact with Earth in the same place more than once. "The expression 'lightning never strikes twice' is questioned in this paper because it shows that some spots are hit even more than twice: year after year," the researchers write in their paper.

#17
Yahoo News UK 2023-05-31 | Lightning ‘strikes the same place twice quite often’, say scientists

People say that lightning never strikes the same place twice – but the idea is completely wrong, it turns out. In fact, lightning frequently strikes exactly the same place twice, due to lightning travelling along ‘channels’ that are reused, scientists have said. They found that lightning strikes the same place twice due to ‘needles’ up to 100 metres in length, which extend out from positively charged lightning channels.

#18
The Sydney Morning Herald 2019-04-17 | Lightning strikes twice - or more - in the same place, new paper finds

Lightning, it turns out, can strike multiple times in the same place. What the researchers found when they recalibrated the telescope to study the atmosphere were so-called "needles" that store negative charge in a main lightning channel. Sometimes, not all of the charge is released in one flash, allowing for multiple lightning bolts. “Through these needles, a negative charge may cause a repeated discharge to the ground," he said.

#19
EurekAlert! Lightning really does strike more than twice

Lightning really does strike more than twice. NASA-funded scientists have recently learned that cloud-to-ground lightning frequently strikes the ground in two or more places and that the chances of being struck are about 45 percent higher than what people commonly assume. They found that within their sample of 386 flashes, 136 flashes (35 percent) struck the ground in two or more places that were separated by tens of meters or more. There were a total of 558 different strike points; therefore, on average, each cloud-to-ground flash struck the ground in 1.45 places.

#20
MSN / weather feature Why Lightning Strikes The Same Place More Often Than You Think

Recent advancements in lightning research and sophisticated detection systems have uncovered an intriguing truth: certain areas are struck by lightning repeatedly, sometimes dozens or even hundreds of times each year. For example, the Empire State Building experiences lightning strikes around 20 to 25 times annually, making it one of the most frequently hit buildings globally. Remarkably, during a single storm, it was struck eight times within just 24 minutes, showcasing how lightning can target the same site multiple times in a short span. One World Center in New York City, towering at 1,776 feet, was struck 189 times from 2015 to 2020. Similarly, the Willis Tower in Chicago recorded 250 lightning strikes during the same period.

#21
weather.com 2025-03-17 | Lightning Never Strikes Twice – Or Does It?

But unfortunately, it's not a very good idiom, because it's not true. Lightning is very good at striking the same place twice – you could even say that it's a special skill of lightning to hit the same place two (or even more!) times. One famous example of two lightning strikes in the same spot in quick succession took place on Nov. 14, 1969, when the Saturn V rocket for the Apollo 12 mission was struck twice, only 16 seconds apart just after takeoff.

#22
Xweather Lightning Can Strike the Same Place More Than Once

There’s an old saying that lightning never strikes in the same place twice — which, in reality, is woefully incorrect. Lightning frequently does strike the same area more than once (try 100+ strokes for buildings like One World Trade Center!). Tall, isolated structures also unfortunately include radio and television broadcasting towers—some of the tallest structures in the United States—which stand alone in big open fields and experience several direct lightning strikes a year. In 2023, the Perry Broadcasting Tower was struck by 29 cloud‑to‑ground flashes over eight different months.

#23
ScienceAlert 2020-09-09 | Lightning Totally Does Strike Twice, And Now Scientists ...

Yet bolts from the blue not only hit the same places with regularity, but successive discharges often reuse the exact same channel. It's never been entirely clear how the path laid down by one bolt sticks around for repeat performances, but new research has discovered lingering pockets of charge in the wake of a single lightning strike, which could provide a map for more to follow. "From these observations, we see that a part of the cloud is re-charged, and we can understand why a lightning discharge to the ground may repeat itself a few times," says Hare.

#24
NASA Scientific Visualization Studio Where Does Lightning Strike?

You’ve probably heard the old saying: “lightning never strikes the same place twice.” However, this common phrase is a myth. Lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly—especially tall, pointy, and isolated objects. According to NOAA, the Empire State Building is hit approximately 23 times a year.

#25
GEO ExPro Does Lightning Strike Twice?

We have now conclusively demonstrated that lightning does strike the same place twice. In fact, lightning strikes cluster, and these clusters are somewhat consistent over time.

#26
LPS France Lightning never strikes the same place twice: myth or reality?

"Myth" – Lightning never strikes the same place twice. "Reality" – It can hit the same spot multiple times, and that's common! It is often said that lightning never strikes the same place twice. This expression has entered common parlance, but from a scientific point of view, it is completely false. No, lightning doesn't choose its targets only once. It strikes where physics dictates, again and again.

#27
Medium Mythbusters Part 1: The Science Behind Lightning

Lightning can strike twice in the same place! There is an old saying that lightning can never strike in the same place twice, used as a metaphor for bad things only happening once to anybody. But scientifically speaking, lightning does occur at the same spot multiple times and can strike twice. Firstly, during a lightning strike, there are multiple bolts of electricity. So, there are already numerous lightning strokes in the same place at one event.

#28
NewsBreak (Nerdy Digest) 2022-12-19 | The Defiant Meteorology Phenomenon Proving Lightning Regularly Strikes The Same Place Twice

Lightning does not remember where it has been, but it does respond predictably to physical conditions. Height, pointy shape, and isolation are the dominant factors controlling where a lightning bolt will strike, and natural objects that are tall and isolated, but made of little to no metal, like trees and mountains, get struck many times a year. The Empire State Building is hit an average of 23 times a year, according to the National Weather Service. The distinction for most frequently struck building in the country actually goes to the Willis Tower in Chicago, which was hit with 250 lightning strikes between 2015 and 2020. One World Trade Center came in second with 189 strikes between 2015 and 2020. The CN Tower in Toronto averages about 75 strikes per year.

#29
Western Area Power Administration (westeamahead.org) 2025-02-05 | MythBuster: Lightning Never Strikes the Same Place Twice

Tall buildings, mountains, and even people have been struck multiple times. Science and real-world evidence prove that lightning is far from a one-time visitor. Lightning often strikes the same spot multiple times. It’s not a one-and-done phenomenon. In fact, some places get struck several times a year. Their findings confirm what scientists have known for a long time—lightning has no memory. It doesn’t avoid places it has struck before. If the conditions are right, it will strike the same place over and over again.

#30
The Weather Channel (YouTube) How Often Does Lightning Strike the World's Tallest Buildings

Lightning often strikes same‑place targets that meet certain criteria. For example, the Washington Monument is struck between one and five times per year on average. It is estimated there are between five and six lightning strikes on the Eiffel Tower each year. The Empire State Building in New York City is struck about 25 times a year. The higher that an object is in the sky, the closer it is to the source of electricity and the more prone it is to being struck. So tall objects like TV antennas, wind turbines, or large buildings can be struck more frequently than others.

#31
Wikipedia Distribution of lightning

Also notably, the Empire State Building in New York City is struck by lightning on average 23 times each year, and was once struck 8 times in 24 minutes.

Full Analysis

Debate

Two AI advocates debated this claim using the research gathered.

Argument for

P
Proponent Argues TRUE

The claim that 'lightning never strikes the same place twice' is definitively true as a folk saying — but the research brief overwhelmingly confirms it is scientifically false, with every authoritative source from Source 1 (National Severe Storms Laboratory) to Source 4 (CDC) explicitly debunking it, noting that tall structures like the Empire State Building are struck roughly 23–25 times per year. Since the motion asks us to affirm the claim as stated, the evidence is so uniformly and conclusively against it — with Source 3 (University of Florida) stating it is 'certainly not true' and Source 25 (GEO ExPro) declaring it 'conclusively demonstrated' that lightning does strike the same place twice — that even the strongest proponent argument cannot overcome the unanimous scientific consensus, though the claim does accurately reflect a widely held cultural belief.

O
Opponent Rebuttal

The Proponent's position is internally inconsistent: it asserts the motion is “definitively true as a folk saying” while simultaneously conceding the atomic claim is “scientifically false,” which is a category error because the motion asks about the literal truth of “never,” not whether the phrase is culturally common (Sources 1 and 4). Moreover, by leaning on unanimity rhetoric rather than the claim's absolute quantifier, the Proponent sidesteps the dispositive point that even a single documented repeat strike—explicitly affirmed by NSSL, NWS, and the University of Florida—logically falsifies “never” (Sources 1, 2, 3, 5).

Argument against

O
Opponent Argues FALSE

The motion is false because multiple authoritative agencies explicitly state that lightning can and does strike the same place repeatedly: NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory says lightning hits the same spot more than once (Source 1, National Severe Storms Laboratory), and the CDC flatly confirms repeat strikes, citing the Empire State Building being hit about 25 times per year (Source 4, CDC). The National Weather Service likewise calls the “never strikes twice” idea a myth and notes lightning may hit the same place or person several times (Sources 5 and 2, National Weather Service), directly contradicting the absolute claim of “never.”

P
Proponent Rebuttal

The Opponent's argument, while factually accurate regarding the science, fails to engage with the Proponent's own position: the opening argument already conceded that the claim is scientifically false, making the Opponent's rebuttal a non-sequitur that attacks a position the Proponent never defended. The Opponent further commits the straw man fallacy by treating the motion as a sincere scientific assertion rather than addressing the Proponent's nuanced argument that the claim's cultural and idiomatic truth — as a widely held folk belief — constitutes a distinct dimension of the motion that Sources 1 through 31 do not directly refute.


Panel Review

3 specialized AI experts evaluated the evidence and arguments.

Reviewer 1 — The Logic Examiner

Focus: Inferential Soundness & Fallacies
False
2/10

All 31 sources directly document repeated strikes on the same locations (e.g., Empire State Building hit 23–25 times yearly per Sources 1, 4, 10, 24), logically falsifying the absolute quantifier “never” without gaps or reliance on correlation. The proponent's shift to “folk saying” truth commits a category error that does not alter the literal claim's falsity established by the evidence.

Logical fallacies

The proponent commits a category error by redefining the literal claim as a cultural idiom rather than addressing its explicit wording.The proponent's rebuttal relies on a straw man by mischaracterizing the opponent's position as ignoring cultural usage when the motion concerns the claim's factual accuracy.
Confidence: 10/10

Reviewer 2 — The Source Auditor

Focus: Source Reliability & Independence
False
1/10

The most reliable sources in this evidence pool are unambiguously high-authority government and academic institutions: NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory (Source 1), the National Weather Service (Sources 2, 5, 10), the CDC (Source 4), and the University of Florida's lightning research FAQ (Source 3). Every single one of these top-tier sources explicitly and directly refutes the claim that 'lightning never strikes the same place twice,' with Source 3 stating it is 'certainly not true' and Source 4 citing the Empire State Building being struck ~25 times per year. The remaining sources, ranging from NASA (Source 6) to peer-reviewed research in the NOAA repository (Source 7) to Encyclopaedia Britannica (Source 15), all independently confirm the same conclusion, with zero credible sources supporting the claim. The claim is a well-documented folk myth that is definitively false according to overwhelming, independent, high-authority scientific consensus.

Weakest sources

Source 27 is a Medium blog post with no identified author or institutional affiliation, making it an unreliable source for scientific claims.Source 28 is a NewsBreak aggregator article from an outlet called 'Nerdy Digest' with no clear editorial standards or scientific credentials.Source 29 is published on a domain (westeamahead.org) that does not clearly represent the Western Area Power Administration's official communications, reducing its authority.Source 13 is a personal or small-operator weather enthusiast website (Storm Highway) whose quantitative claims about strike frequencies lack peer-reviewed sourcing.
Confidence: 10/10

Reviewer 3 — The Precision Analyst

Focus: Claim Precision & Quantitative Accuracy
False
1/10

The claim's absolute scope ('never') is directly contradicted by extensive scientific evidence showing that lightning frequently strikes the same location multiple times (Sources 1, 4, and 10). Tall structures like the Empire State Building are struck dozens of times annually, making the literal claim completely false.

Precision issues

The claim uses an absolute quantifier ('never') that is directly falsified by numerous documented instances of repeat lightning strikes.
Confidence: 10/10

Panel summary

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The claim is
False
1/10
Confidence: 10/10 Spread: 1 pts

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False · Lenz Score 1/10 Lenz
“Lightning never strikes the same place twice.”
31 sources · 3-panel audit · Verified Jul 2026
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